Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?     

Cédric Bertrand  Jean-Pascal van Ypersele  André Berger 《Climatic change》2002,55(4):413-427

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.  相似文献   

Resolution, stability and efficiency of resistivity tomography estimated from a generalized inverse approach   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sven Friedel 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,153(2):305-316

  相似文献   

Reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 from ice-core data and the deep-sea record of ontong Java plateau: the Milankovitch chron     

Wolfgang H. Berger  Memorie K. Yasuda  Torsten Bickert  Gerold Wefer 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1996,85(3):466-495

We provide a reconstruction of atmospheric CO₂ from deep-sea sediments, for the past 625000 years (Milankovitch chron). Our database consists of a Milankovitch template of sea-level variation in combination with a unique data set for the deep-sea record for Ontong Java plateau in the western equatorial Pacific. We redate the Vostok ice-core data of Barnola et al. (1987). To make the reconstructions we employ multiple regression between deep-sea data, on one hand, and ice-core CO₂ data in Antarctica, on the other. The patterns of correlation suggest that the main factors controlling atmospheric CO₂ can be described as a combination of sea-level state and sea-level change. For best results squared values of state and change are used. The square-of-sea-level rule agrees with the concept that shelf processes are important modulators of atmospheric CO₂ (e.g., budgets of shelf organic carbon and shelf carbonate, nitrate reduction). The square-of-change rule implies that, on short timescales, any major disturbance of the system results in a temporary rise in atmospheric CO₂.  相似文献   

Assessing rapid environmental change using geoindicators   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

A. R. Berger 《Environmental Geology》1997,32(1):36-44

 Geoindicators are high-resolution measures of short-term (<100 years) surface or near-surface changes in earth processes, and phenomena that are significant for environmental monitoring and assessment. They are based on standard concepts and procedures and can be used to track changes in fluvial, coastal, desert, mountain, permafrost and other terrestrial areas. Geoindicators assess both catastrophic events and those that are more gradual, but evident within a human lifespan. Most deal with changes on the landscape (0.1–10 km) and meso-scales (10–100 km), but some, such as relative sea level and volcanic unrest, have regional and global dimensions. Some are complex and costly to measure, others are relatively simple and easy to apply. Geoindicators can also be used to unravel trends over the past few centuries and longer through paleoenvironmental research, thus providing the important baselines against which human-induced and natural stresses can be better understood. Geoindicators have been designed by the International Union of Geological Sciences as an aid to state-of-the-environment reporting and long-term ecological monitoring. Received: 26 July 1996 / Accepted: 1 November 1996  相似文献   

Remote sensing detection of atmospheric pollutants by differential absorption LIDAR 510M/SODAR PA2 mobile system     

J. Keder  M. Střižík  P. Berger  A. Černý  P. Engst  I. Němcová 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2004,85(1-3):155-164

Summary Air pollution problem in the Czech Republic is very complex due to large number of factors as turbulent dispersion and chemical reactions concurring in the status of the PBL. For this 3D distribution of pollutants is a key information that cannot be given by conventional monitoring stations. Combined use of DIAL lidar and sodar can give access to such information. Case studies of air pollutants transport are presented using 3D concentration fields of NO₂ and ozone measured by lidar and meteorological conditions monitored by Doppler Sodar.  相似文献   

Mountain Protection Forests against Natural Hazards and Risks: New French Developments by Integrating Forests in Risk Zoning   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Berger  F.  Rey  F. 《Natural Hazards》2004,33(3):395-404

Forests can play a very significant role in protection against natural hazards and risks in mountain lands, especially against erosion and rockfalls. This paper first assesses knowledge concerning the capacity of forests to control natural hazards, with emphasis placed on forest location in catchments or slopes. Zoning aspects are then presented; based on the use of GIS, they allow determining priorities for forestry operations (cuts and biological engineering), in view to setting up an 'optimal management' of mountain forest ecosystems. Finally, an explanation is given of how the results of research are used for the management and planning of mountain ecosystems, illustrated by an example of researcher-practitioner transfer in France. Zoning, prevention, display and regular aspects are developed. On the basis of the experience and knowledge presented here, recommendations are proposed to better take into account the role of mountain forests in the control of natural hazards and risks. It is necessary to have an adapted legislative and economic framework, define priority forest intervention zones and determine an adapted sylviculture.  相似文献   

Grain coarsening in contact metamorphic carbonates: effects of second-phase particles, fluid flow and thermal perturbations   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

A. Berger  M. Herwegh 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2004,22(5):459-474

Under contact metamorphic conditions, carbonate rocks in the direct vicinity of the Adamello pluton reflect a temperature‐induced grain coarsening. Despite this large‐scale trend, a considerable grain size scatter occurs on the outcrop‐scale indicating local influence of second‐order effects such as thermal perturbations, fluid flow and second‐phase particles. Second‐phase particles, whose sizes range from nano‐ to the micron‐scale, induce the most pronounced data scatter resulting in grain sizes too small by up to a factor of 10, compared with theoretical grain growth in a pure system. Such values are restricted to relatively impure samples consisting of up to 10 vol.% micron‐scale second‐phase particles, or to samples containing a large number of nano‐scale particles. The obtained data set suggests that the second phases induce a temperature‐controlled reduction on calcite grain growth. The mean calcite grain size can therefore be expressed in the form D = C₂ e^Q*/RT(d_p/f_p)^m*, where C₂ is a constant, Q* is an activation energy, T the temperature and m* the exponent of the ratio d_p/f_p, i.e. of the average size of the second phases divided by their volume fraction. However, more data are needed to obtain reliable values for C₂ and Q*. Besides variations in the average grain size, the presence of second‐phase particles generates crystal size distribution (CSD) shapes characterized by lognormal distributions, which differ from the Gaussian‐type distributions of the pure samples. In contrast, fluid‐enhanced grain growth does not change the shape of the CSDs, but due to enhanced transport properties, the average grain sizes increase by a factor of 2 and the variance of the distribution increases. Stable δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C isotope ratios in fluid‐affected zones only deviate slightly from the host rock values, suggesting low fluid/rock ratios. Grain growth modelling indicates that the fluid‐induced grain size variations can develop within several ka. As inferred from a combination of thermal and grain growth modelling, dykes with widths of up to 1 m have only a restricted influence on grain size deviations smaller than a factor of 1.1. To summarize, considerable grain size variations of up to one order of magnitude can locally result from second‐order effects. Such effects require special attention when comparing experimentally derived grain growth kinetics with field studies.  相似文献   

Dynamics of an active rock glacier (Ötztal Alps, Austria)     

Jana Berger  Karl Krainer  Wolfram Mostler 《Quaternary Research》2004,62(3):233-242

The rock glacier Innere Ölgrube, located in a small side valley of the Kauner Valley (Ötztal Alps, Austria), consists of two separate, tongue-shaped rock glaciers lying next to each other. Investigations indicate that both rock glaciers contain a core of massive ice. During winter, the temperature at the base of the snow cover (BTS) is significantly lower at the active rock glacier than on permafrost-free ground adjacent to the rock glacier. Discharge is characterized by strong seasonal and diurnal variations, and is strongly controlled by the local weather conditions. Water temperature of the rock glacier springs remains constantly low, mostly below 1°C during the whole melt season. The morphology of the rock glaciers and the presence of meltwater lakes in their rooting zones as well as the high surface flow velocities of >1 m/yr point to a glacial origin. The northern rock glacier, which is bounded by lateral moraines, evolved from the debris-covered tongue of a small glacier of the Little Ice Age with its last highstand around A.D. 1850. Due to the global warming in the following decades, the upper parts of the steep and debris-free ice glacier melted, whereas the debris-covered glacier tongue transformed into an active rock glacier. Due to this evolution and due to the downslope movement, the northern rock glacier, although still active, at present is cut off from its ice and debris supply. The southern rock glacier has developed approximately during the same period from a debris-covered cirque glacier at the foot of the Wannetspitze massif.  相似文献   

Fabric studies within the Cascade Lake shear zone, Sierra Nevada, California   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Basil Tikoff  Matthew R. Davis  Christian Teyssier  Michel de St. Blanquat  Guillaume Habert  Sven Morgan   《Tectonophysics》2005,400(1-4):209-226

The Cascade Lake shear zone occurs on the eastern margin of the Tuolumne Intrusive Suite, Sierra Nevada Batholith, California. Foliation in the zone is NNW trending and subvertical, and lineation is moderately south plunging. Deformation is syn-tectonic with emplacement of the Cathedral Peak granodiorite. A deformation gradient exists toward the NE margin of this pluton, with higher strains and lower temperatures of deformation found near the contact. We compare fabric data collected very densely in this shear zone using several techniques: field fabrics, 3D orientation of K-feldspar megacrysts, and AMS (anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility) analysis. In general, the results from the three different methods are in agreement. Deformation in this shear zone is part of a larger pattern of deformation within the Cathedral Peak granodiorite, as recorded by AMS analysis, and dextral shearing associated within the last stage of plutonism within the Sierra Nevada magmatic arc.  相似文献   

Eocene-Pliocene time scale and stratigraphy of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) and the Swiss Molasse Basin (SMB)     

Jean-Pierre Berger  Bettina Reichenbacher  Damien Becker  Matthias Grimm  Kirsten Grimm  Laurent Picot  Andrea Storni  Claudius Pirkenseer  Andreas Schaefer 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(4):711-731

We present a general stratigraphic synthesis for the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) and the Swiss Molasse Basin (SMB) from Eocene to Pliocene times. The stratigraphic data were compiled both from literature and from research carried out by the authors during the past 6 years ; an index of the stratigraphically most important localitites is provided. We distinguish 14 geographical areas from the Helvetic domain in the South to the Hanau Basin in the North. For each geographical area, we give a synthesis of the biostratigraphy, lithofacies, and chronostratigraphic ranges. The relationships between this stratigraphic record and the global sea-level changes are generally disturbed by the geodynamic (e.g., subsidence) evolution of the basins. However, global sea-level changes probably affected the dynamic of transgression–regression in the URG (e.g., Middle Pechelbronn Beds and Serie Grise corresponding with sea-level rise between Ru1/Ru2 and Ru2/Ru3 sequences, respectively) as well as in the Molasse basin (regression of the UMM corresponding with the sea-level drop at the Ch1 sequence). The URGENT-project (Upper Rhine Graben evolution and neotectonics) provided an unique opportunity to carry out and present this synthesis. Discussions with scientists addressing sedimentology, tectonics, geophysics and geochemistry permitted the comparison of the sedimentary history and stratigraphy of the basin with processes controlling its geodynamic evolution. Data presented here back up the palaeogeographic reconstructions presented in a companion paper by the same authors (see Berger et al. in Int J Earth Sci 2005).  相似文献